CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 06/11 - 05Z SUN 07/11 2004
ISSUED: 05/11 22:42Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the southern Iberian Peninsula and the central Mediterranean Regions.

General thunderstorms are forecast across the N Baltic States and S Finland.

SYNOPSIS

High-Amplitude upper flow pattern present over the E Atlantic and the European continent ... with rather intense upper low over Scandinavia ... progged to shift eastward ... and to spread into E-central Europe on Saturday. Another upper cut-off low is FCST to remain in place SE of the Iberian peninsula. Scandinavian SFC low is progged to fill during the day ... with weak cyclogenesis expected to accompany digging upper low over NE/E-central Euope. Weak cyclogenesis also expected in the lee of the Alps over the NW Mediterranean Sea. SFC high will remain anchored over the E Atlantic/W Europe ... with rather quiescent conditions over S and E Europe.

DISCUSSION

...SW Iberian Peninsula ... Gibraltar ...
Shape of thermodynamic profiles and degree of instability within the low-level theta-e tongue wrapping around the upper low are somewhat uncertain ATTM ... but chances exist that an EML will be present over a rather moist boundary layer ... yielding several hundred joules per kg CAPE. About 20 m/s 500 hPa flow should provide sufficient shear for an isolated severe TSTM event ... but setup will likely be too marginal for a significant severe TSTM threat.

...central Mediterranean...
Air mass over the Mediterranean is nearly neutrally stratified ... and scattered TSTMS should develop ahead of approaching upper low ... and in association with the developing SFC low over the NW/central Mediterranean. Kinematic support should be too weak for substantial severe TSTM threat.

...N Baltic States ... S Finland....
Showers and isolated shallow TSTMS may persist beneath the E-central European upper-thermal low. Both thermodynamic and kinematic setup should be too weak for severe TSTMS.

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